The hottest pressure on the machinery industry com

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Machinery industry: the pressure comes from the demand policy guiding investment

the decline in the profit quality of the industry, the slowdown in downstream demand

the profit growth rate is lower than the income growth rate for the first time. According to the statistical data of Jijing, excluding the automobile and electrical appliance industries, the revenue of the machinery industry increased by 30.99% in the first eight months of this year, slightly lower than 0.34 percentage points last year; The total profit increased by 25.02%, 20.5 percentage points lower than last year. This is the first time since 2004 that the profit growth rate of the machinery industry is lower than the income growth rate, and the profit quality of the industry has declined. The main reasons for the rapid decline in profit growth are the decline in gross profit margin, the rise in period costs and the reduction in investment income caused by rising costs

the slowdown in exports, weak order growth and inventory backlog reflect the slowdown in downstream demand. 2. One business computer and one printer. From the world financial crisis to the economic crisis, the delivery value of machinery exports increased by 19.51% in the first three quarters, lower than the growth rate of 29.68% last year; At the end of September, the order volume of key contact enterprises of machinery and economics increased by 27.7% year-on-year, lower than 42.1% at the end of March; At the end of August, the inventory of industrial finished products increased by 23.76%, higher than 19.23% at the end of last year

the prosperity of railway equipment, aviation manufacturing and bearings is relatively high

from the perspective of sub industries, the growth of railway and mining equipment is outstanding, and the revenue growth rate in the first eight months was 14.32 and 12.61 percentage points higher than that of last year; Project 1 Inspection standard: the gas spring performance test standard qc/t 207 (1) 996 and jb/t 8064.1 (9) 6 the profit quality of machinery has decreased significantly, and the profit growth rate is 142.45 percentage points lower than last year; The export growth of aviation manufacturing industry accelerated, and the growth rate of export delivery value in the first eight months increased by 41.32 percentage points over last year, but construction machinery is still the sub industry with the fastest export growth. Overall, railway vehicles, aircraft manufacturing and bearings are sub industries with high prosperity

next year, the industry pressure comes from demand

the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the main downstream industries of machinery slows down, and the growth of domestic demand is under pressure. In addition to agriculture, the growth rate of fixed asset investment in other industries such as mining, manufacturing, transportation and real estate is likely to slow down. At the same time, the IMF's latest world economic outlook report further lowered the global economic growth rate next year by 0.8 percentage points to 2.2%; We expect that the export growth rate of the industry will also decline significantly next year

it is expected that the growth rate of industry revenue will be about 20% next year. In the context of the national economic stimulus plan, the nominal growth rate of fixed asset investment is expected to remain at a high level. In fact, whether the after-sales growth rate is higher than this year. We expect that the revenue growth rate of the machinery industry next year is expected to remain at about 20%, about 8 percentage points lower than this year. At the same time, the cost reduction is expected to eliminate the impact of the slowdown in demand growth, improve the quality of industry profits, and the profit growth rate of the whole industry is about 25%

pay attention to the investment opportunities brought by the expansion policy

we believe that the overall growth rate of the machinery industry will still decline next year, and there is no overall investment opportunity. It is suggested to focus on the subsidiaries with policy support effect, which are mainly used in the testing industry of mechanical property indicators such as tensile, shrinkage, zigzag, shear, peel, tear of various metal, non-metal and composite materials. The government's 4trillion yuan infrastructure investment has limited impact on the overall machinery industry, which is expected to bring 2.5 percentage points of growth to the industry revenue; However, the local investment and personal investment driven by this may well exceed our expectations

it is suggested to pay attention to the railway equipment and construction machinery industries that benefit mainly, and to the listed companies Shidai Xincai (11.31,0.00,0.00%, bar), Tianma shares, CSR (4.42, -0.02, -0.45%, bar), Shantui shares (9.39, -0.04, -0.42%, bar)

the value-added tax transformation will have a limited increase in the profits of listed companies next year. In the case of economic downturn, the effect of stimulating downstream industries to upgrade equipment is limited, but it is conducive to the long-term development of the machinery industry. Although the machine tool industry lags behind the special equipment in terms of benefit order, the room for machine tool improvement is much larger in terms of strength; It is suggested to pay attention to Kunming Machine tool

risk factors suggest that the implementation progress of expansion policy is lower than expected

the State implements expansion policy and increases infrastructure construction to expand domestic demand. There should be a time interval from project planning to actual implementation, and the purchase of new equipment is likely to be in the second quarter or after the middle of next year. If the implementation progress of the project is slower than expected, the pulling effect on the equipment may not be obvious next year

the peripheral economy fell, and exports fell sharply.

the time and depth of the world economic downturn have a great impact on domestic machinery and equipment exports. It is now widely expected that the U.S. economy may bottom out by the end of next year and enter a long recovery period in the future. If the magnitude and duration of the overall economic downturn exceed expectations, domestic machinery and equipment exports will decline further

steel prices rebound

steel prices have fallen since July. At present, many varieties have fallen by more than 40%, and there has been no decent rebound. Last week, the average market price of 5.5mm hot rolled coil in major cities across the country showed signs of stabilizing and rebounding. If the steel price rebounds and stays at a relatively high level next year, it will reduce the space for the decline of industry costs, thus affecting the profitability of the industry

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